Sunday, February 11, 2024

Not Now, Gotta Run

It has been to say the least, a very busy last month for the Seattle Thunderbirds.  And there is no rest for the weary. After playing seven games in ten days, the team had barely time to catch their breath before starting a stretch of eight games in 14 days, with six of those games on the road.

Now I'm not asking for sympathy.  The schedule was known long ago and traditionally the T-Birds  backload their schedule with the majority of the games coming the second half of the season.  There was a stretch at this point last season in which the team played 11 games in 21 days, or on average, a game every other day. They entered the playoffs last spring after playing their last six regular season games over a nine game span.

It's not something new. They have a voice when it comes to drawing up the schedule. And they also knew they would have a vastly different looking team than the one that won the league championship last May. They knew they would be utilzing a younger, inexperienced roster. To quote one of the great coaching cliches "It is what it is." The team didn't fear that scenario though. With all that, they entered the regular season on September 30th believing they would not only compete for a playoff spot, but potientally a top four spot in the conference if everything broke the right way.

What could not be predicted though was the number of games that would be missed due to injury.  It is literally on a record pace. Through the first 49 games they have lost 150 games to various ailments. And we're not talking the simple bumps and bruises that keep a player out of the lineup for a game or two.  These injuries aren't showing up on the weekly report as day-to-day, but instead are week-to week and month-to-month. By the time we hit March 24th and the regular season finale, don't be surprised if the number of games lost to injury hits the 200 mark.

Seattle really hasn't played that poorly over the last month. They've just been inconsistent. All things considered, the injuries, the busy schedule (featuring eleven games against teams .500 or better), and they're 6-9.  The record of most of the teams around them in the standings are similar. The problem is that they haven't gained any traction.  At the WHL trade deadline, they were six points out of a playoff spot.  A month later they're seven points back and now time is running out.

We knew scoring was going to be a problem and that has played out as Seattle averages a league low 2.7 goals per game. They've scored just one goal in each of their last three games. They knew they would lose four of their top five scorers from their championship team.Then the guy they thought would be their top returning point producer, Kevin Korchinski, surprised many and stuck in the NHL with the Chicago Blackhawks. All of a sudden your top five offensive weapons from last season are gone and seven of your top twelve.

No worry right? They had their second leading goal scorer from last season back. That is, until Nico Myatovic got hurt just a few games into the schedule and missed half the season and is still working his way back to full strength after a three month layoff. The Jordan Gustafson situation seems like a cruel joke.  The guy can't catch a break, at least not of the good variety. Then just as the team was getting healthy they lose Sam Popowich, Coster Dunn and Simon Lovsin to long term injury in back-to-back-to-back games.

Combined that trio has played just once in the last ten games. That's 30 goals out of the lineup on a team struggling to put pucks in the back of the net. Dunn and Lovsin had combined for eleven goals in the first eight games post-Christmas. And it doesn't appear relief is coming anytime soon.

Remember the good old days when all Seattle was doing was counting the days until Colton Dach would join their stacked lineup? It was a simpler time back then, wasn't it? The Thunderbirds margin for error this season was as thin as a sheet of paper. The injuries have been like one of those trick birthday candles that you just can't blow out. It just keep re-igniting and anything you throw on the fire in an attempt to stop the burning, just makes the flames reach higher.

There used to be a show up on the TV in Canada called, I believe, "This Hour has 22 Minutes". That could be the title of this year's T-Birds season becasue that is about how long they had a complete healthy roster available, 22 minutes.

And yet here we are with 19 game remaining and there is still a chance to snag a playoff spot.  It won't be easy and they'll probably need outside help along the way, but it is doable. There is no magic elixir that is going to heal up the wounds faster but Seattle has shown that, short bench or not, they can compete with every team on their schedule. But it has to start now.

My T-Birds Three Stars for the busy stretch:

Third Star: F Nishaan Parmar. The confidence that comes from scoring your first WHL goal must be quite a tonic because Parmar seems to have flipped a switch and brought his game to another level.  Like most of the rookies on the team he is still a work in progress but he has taken a big stride in the right direction.  So much so that he is getting top minutes on the power play and taking key faceoffs.

Second Star: D Jeremy Hanzel. I know a lot of folks out there are wondering why Seattle didn't trade away their stud defenseman, but where would this team be without him? He's not just their leading scorer but he eats up so many minutes on the back end. With captain Jordan Gustafson out of the lineup, he has been the defacto on ice leader. It may not sound fancy but he is the most reliable player on the ice.

First Star G Scott Ratzlaff. Most nights he's all that separates this team from a tough, late game loss and a blow out defeat. He's facing a mountain of rubber most games. I think we forget he is still very young at 18 and it is his first season as a true number one. But he goes about his job without complaint.  Don't look at the win/loss record or the goals against average. Check the save percentage that is at .904.  That's the real indicator of just how good he has been. He won't get a snif at any post season league honors, but he has been one of the best netminders in the league the last two months.




Sunday, January 7, 2024

A Tale of Two Cities

What a difference twenty four hours can make in the life of a young Thunderbirds hockey team.  The game Friday at home against Prince George was the best game they had played since their last win back on December 13th in Spokane. It was not a perfect game as they still are struggling to finish, but against one of the best team's in the CHL they went toe to toe and probably deserved something other than the 2-1 loss.

They were direct, they got pucks in deep, they won puck battles and put shots to the net. In the defensisve zone they got into shot lanes. Their sticks were active knocking down passes and they played with some physicality.  I thought they were focused on playing their best agaisnt one of the best.

Satruday in Everett it was almost the complete opposite. And you might be asking why? Why couldn't the T-birds bring that same focus and effort they had against the Cougars into the game against the Silvertips? I think one of the lessons that young players struggle to grasp early in their careers, is the need to make adjustments from game to game.

Everett plays a different style than PG.  Just as Portland plays a different brand than, say, Tri-City.  So Seattle's young squad may have been focused on doing the same things against Everett as they did the night before against Prince George. That's okay until you have to adjust to how your opponent is playing. 

Against PG Seattle was able to get pucks in deep in the offensive zone and get into the board battles quickly.  Everett is a quicker team and Seattle didn't adjust to that speed.  As head coach Matt O'Dette said about Everett "They're a team that gets up and down the ice very fast. They're on you quick. When you're trying to skate the puck up the ice (against that), if you're not letting the puck work for you and moving it, getting to a place where you can head man the puck, they're going to chase you down."

Again, it really comes down to consistency of effort because back on December 30th, Seattle was able to do that against Everett. They did it even in their 7-1 loss to Everett in mid-December when they outshot the Tips in Everett 44-35. It's just making the mental adjustments from game to game, opponent to opponent.  It's the part of the game that probably takes the most teaching. 

I think another issue is physical maturity. When you're young and consistently playing against older players. Back to back games can be a drain. Physically going up against an older, NHL drafted player on back to back nights is going to be taxing. These young players are learning that firsthand.  We saw it a few years back when players like Ciona, Schaefer, Davidson and Korchinski were young and green.  Then we saw those players mature physically and turn the tables. It's a process. 

But you can't learn it if you don't go out and play.  This is why you'll see a young Braeden Cootes or even a 15-year old callup like Brendan Rudolph out on the ice against an opponent's top line. It gives them that first hand opportunity to know how much they need to grow. It many not seem like it now, but they are learning from those situations.  I remember quite vividly Shea Theodore's 16 year old season. He finished -36. He was thrown out on the ice in all situations.  He wasn't benched if he made a mistake. He learned, he grew, he absorbed the lessons and a couple of seasons later he was +19 and a NHL first round draft pick.

They're going to have some good shifts and they're going to have some bad shifts. They're going to have some good games and they're going to have some nights where they are off.  The goal is to reduce those bad shifts and off games as they grow in their WHL careers. You can't learn every lesson in practice.

What's the first thing a U16 player says after his first game in the WHL? almost to a man they say it's a much faster game. What's the first thing a freshly drafted 18 year says at his first NHL camp? The players are bigger and faster. You don't adjust to that change overnight. The game slows down as you get more repitition. And when you think you have it figured out one game, the next game will challenge that thinking.

Nineteen. The T-Birds have nineteen rookies in their system.  Many of them have already played at least one WHL game this season. In all likelihood, they're going to get two top 25 draft picks this May.  So that's a minimumm of 21 players who will be fighting for roster spots the next two to three seasons. Those players are spread out over four drafts. That's competition. Iron sharpens iron. 

Not all of those players are going to spend 4-5 seasons with the Thunderbirds but they're going to push each other to be their best.  Not all the players will become Shea Theodore's. The cream will rise to the top and that's how you build a winner.  The organization won't hit on 100% of those prospects but if they can develop 30-40 percent, they'll be a winning team again, sooner rather than later.  That process has already begun.  Probably sooner than the organization wanted to because of all the injuries this season. So it may be a curse right now, it could end up being a blessing down the road.

My T-Birds Three Stars for the Weekend:

Third Star: C Coster Dunn.  He just seems primed for an offensive breakout.  You could see that shorthanded goal he scored against Everett coming.  He seems to be feeling more comfortable in his own skin as he becomes relied upon more.  He still has work to do but he had a goal and an assist in the two games and that has him pointing in the right direction.

Second Star: W Nathan Pilling.  A goal in each game.  His shooter's mentality is a reason for that. Hopefully there is more of that to come the second half as he gets more comfortable in his new surroundngs. In five games since being acquired from Edmonton he has four points (2g, 2a). What I've observed from him off the ice, he's got the look and the demeanor of a team leader.  

First Star: G Scott Ratzlaff. Simply brilliant on Saturday night in Everett. He made 54 saves and everyone of them kept the T-birds in the game, giving them a chance until the final minute. One of the best singular goalie performances I've seen in 20-plus years with the T-Birds. Not just because of the volume of shots faced, but the number of high quality scoring chances he denied.  In two games this weekend he stopped 87 shots.  


  

Tuesday, January 2, 2024

It's the Little Things

I see a lot of parallels between this version of the T-Birds and the 2021 pandemic season team.  Maybe not in the results, as the T-Birds put together a decent record in those 23-games, going 10-12-0-1, but there are other similarities.  

To be fair, that team didn't go through a series of significant injuries like this season's team is experiencing. But like this year's team, that team was quite young with just one 20 year old, Kelit Jeri-Leon on the roster. But the young players that year weren't sixteen year olds, they were seventeen year olds. 

Twelve players who played in at least one game that 2021 season were listed as rookies, though one, goalie Jackson Berry, was 18 years old with limited games previously in the league.  Fifteen players who have skated in at least one game for Seattle this season are rookies, none of them over the age of seventeen. Twelve of them are age 16 or younger. 

Statistically, Seattle is the second youngest team in the WHL this season but we are splitting hairs here.  According to Alan Caldwell, Calgary has the youngest team with an average age of 17.70 year old.  The T-Birds and Medicine Hat have a roster with an average age of 17.79.  But with their key injuries being to their older players (age 19 or older), my guess is that, on a nightly basis, the T-birds are actually icing the youngest team night in and night out.  

Here's an example. In their last game Calgary dressed eight players classified as rookies. Two of them were age 18, three were 17 year olds and the other three were age 16. In their last game Medicine Hat dressed eight rookies as well. They break down like this: one 18-year old, three 17 year olds and four 16 year olds. Both Calgary and Medicine Hat have their fare share of second year players, aged 17 and 18.

In their last game the T-Birds dressed nine players classified as rookies. Of those nine three were age seventeen.  The other six?  All age 16. The T-Birds also skated two other 17 year olds but both Hyde Davidson and Bryce Pickford are no longer classified as rookies, having played full-time with the team a year ago.  The Thunderbirds dressed just two 20-year olds because Eric Alarie was out injured,  then lost 19 year old Jordan Gustafson for the third period because of injury as well.  Meanwhile, 19-year old defenseman Braeden Wynne was a healthy scratch. 

The T-birds are currently carrying just four other 19 year olds outside of the ones listed above. Myatovic (inj) and Hauf (WJC) were not in the lineup while Pilling and Boucher played. Sawyer Mynio and Scott Ratzlaff are their most experienced 18 year olds, with both being in their third season. Of course Ratzaff has been away from the team having made Canada's World Junior roster. The T-Birds only other two 18 year olds are Coster Dunn and Cru Hanas.

How does that compare with the T-Birds 2021 pandemic season roster?  Well, of that team's 12 players listed as rookies, as we said, one was 18 (Berry), four were age 17 (Schaefer, Popowich, Milic, and Hanzel), five were age 16 (Gustafson, Korchinski, Myatovic, Ludwig and Penner) while two were age 15 (Ratzlaff and Oremba). Meanwhile, players such as Ciona, Sanders and Roulette were just 17 but had played in enough games the previous season to lose their rookie status.  Also on the roster were three 19 year olds (McNelly, Gottfried and Rybinski) and  five 18 year olds (Davidson, Rempe, Bauer, Mount and Bateman) to go along with the 20 year old Jeri-Leon.  

So their are definite similarities. But there are two big differences. One will be the number of games played. Again, that team only played 23 games over two and a half months.  This year's team has already played in 32 games and will play another 36 before all is said and done.  

The other difference? That 2021 team had nothing to play for but to gain experience. There was no playoff spot to fight for, no pennants or Chynoweth Cup were on the line. Basically, there was no pressure on them. That's not the case for this year's team.  They are fighting to earn a playoff spot. They put expectations on themselves when the season began. The margin for error was thin.  They could not afford injuries among their better, veteran players. Unfortunately those injuries happened. 

This team is trying to get through this rough patch where every mistake or lapse seems to find the back of the net.  The offense is struggling to score goals and the goaltending has been sporadic.  The hope was always to get healthy and make a second half push. Is that still doable with this young team? We'l soon find out.

My T-Birds Three Stars for the last two weeks of 2023.

Third Star: G Grayson Malonoski. He was solid in two starts and one game where he came on in relief. With Scott Ratzlaff returning soon from World Juniors, I would expect the 16-year old to be returned to his U18 team in Saskatoon, but it looks like he has a bright future in goal with Seattle over the next 3-to-4 years.

Second Star: D Jeremy Hanzel.  He is doing what he is supposed to do as a 20 year old defenseman. He's providing leadership, offense and playing a complete 200 foot game.  In the absence of the injured veterans he has stepped up big time.

First Star: W Simon Lovsin. Speaking of complete players, Lovsin is showing signs that he can be just that for Seattle. He has a scoring touch with three goals in three games, plays physical and stands up for his teammates.  I think his play since returning from the Christmas break will catch the eye of NHL scouts if he can continue it through the rest of the second half.


Monday, December 18, 2023

Fill Those Stockings, Fill the Net

The Thunderbirds reach the Christmas break hoping Santa will put a few goals under their tree. Seattle finished the three game weekend scoring just one goal in each game. No surprise then that the T-Birds lost all three games.

With the exception of an ugly seven minute span in the first period Saturday in Everett, the T-Birds didn't give up much either. The Thunderbirds lost 2-1, in overtime, Friday at home to the Vancouver Giants.  They dropped that game to the Silvertip 7-1 before losing 3-1 Sunday to the Giants in Langley with the third goal being an empty netter.

Those three losses came after Seattle had traveled to Spokane last Wednesday and posted a 5-3 win. But four of the goals versus the Chiefs were scored on the power play. The T-birds scored just one even strength goal in their last four games. And since a 10-for-23 stretch with the man advanatge, the Thunderbirds are zero-for-their-last-six.  

You can't rely on your power play for fifty percent of your scoring. Somehow, someway the T-birds have to start generating more even strength goals. Is it a lack of opportunity? Are they spending too much time in their own end? I would say no. Sure, there have been occasions when they struggle to get the puck up ice but that wasn't an issue in any of their last four games.

In those last four pre-Christmas games Seattle averaged 36 shots on goal, twice breaking the 40 shot barrier. What they are missing is some finish.  Sunday's game against Vancouver was a prime example as Seattle created numerous ten bell scoring chances but either flubbed the chance, shot wide or put the puck right in the middle of the goalies jersey. During the first intermission Sunday in Langley, one observer up in the press box said the T-Birds skated themselves out of three goals.

With just 78 the Thunderbirds have scored by far away the fewest goals in the WHL thus far this season. Yes, part of that can be explained by having played a league fewest 29 games at the break but their goals per game average is just 2.6 goals per game and that number drops to 2.1 over their last ten outings.

The injuries to Nico Myatovic and Jordan Gustafson, the month missed by Gracyn Sawchyn, are factors. Not getting Kevin Korchinski back from the Chicago Blackhawks has played into the lack of offensive production as well. It has left Seattle with little margin for error as they skated through the first half with one of the youngest rosters in the WHL.

It's realistic to think that had the Thunderbirds not lost so many games to injuries with their top players, they woud convievably have 4-5 more wins.  But every year teams go through the injury bug. Some more than others, but you know it's coming. Seattle just hasn't had the veteran depth  to survive it, like they did a season ago.

As a result the optimism at the start of the season gave way to the reality of a 12-15-2-0 record heading into the holiday break. The question is, how will they respond when play begins again December 28th?

The T-Birds used fifteen rookies the first half including eight 16 year olds and five 15 year olds.  That's unprecedented. Hopefully it pays off in the future but what does Seattle do in the present? Do they get healthy and stand pat? Or do they break up the gang and trade away valuable veterans? It will be an interesting next month.

My T-Birds Three Stars for the First Half:

Third Star: C Sam Popowich. He has been the most reliable of Seattle's forwards. He plays in all situations and is one gig reason why both of Seattle's special teams, the power play and the penalty kill. have been consistently near the top of the WHL. He needs two more goals to establish a new career high in the WHL. He sticks up for his teammates and provides needed leadership.

Second Star: W Antonio Martorana. On a team full of rookies, he has stood out in the crowd. The 16-year old former 4th round draft pick leads the team in goals at the break with 12. He gets many of them by going to the net. He should only get better as he begins to play more minutes on the power play. A couple goals in the first few games? Maybe you could discount that as flukey, but a dozen goals in 29 games is no fluke.  He's the real deal.

First Star: D Jeremy Hanzel.  The 20 year old defenseman is playing his best hockey right now, building off what was a terrific season a year ago and doing it with a lesser supporting cast around him.  He's taken over the role of quarterbacking the power play that would have been Korchinski's if he were here and he is flourishing. He plays a ton of minutes and he's so often able to skate the T-Birds out of trouble. The Colorado Avalanche have to be happy with the way his season has gone the first three months. They picked him in the sixth round last summer, now let's hope they reward him with a contract. 



Sunday, December 3, 2023

Please Bear With Us

The annual Teddy Bear Toss game is a highlight of the season on every team's schedule. Not only do the fans look forward to it, but so do the players. Scoring the Teddy Bear Toss goal is a big deal. Only one player gets to do it. Often times, it comes from an unexpected source. 

That wasn't the case Saturday against Kelowna as Gracyn Sawchyn is one of Seattle's better offensive weapons. I guess the only real intrigue was whether Sawchyn would be in the line up.  He missed over a month with a lower body injury. He did play in last Friday's home game against Saskatoon but wasn't in the lineup last Saturday in Kelowna. Tht's a nice way to announce your return.

Certainly the game was in doubt going into the third period.  The T-Birds were down by one and some quality scoring chances in the second period came up just short.  Head coach Matt O'Dette admitted that led to a little bit of frustation, and understandibly so.  Entering the game the T-Birds had scored just five times in their last four games. They were getting chances and not finishing.  

But they stuck with it and continued to play the T-Birds brand of hockey, the key to which is a strong forecheck. It led to a few power play chances in the final period and they eventually capitalized.  They earned that win. The old saying is you usually get the result you deserve and recently Seattle had been coming up just short.  Small mistakes were adding up and ending up in the back of the T-Birds net.  The Thunderbirds were basically playing  the "close but not quite" game.  It was nice to see them find the necessary finish to close out a win.

Seattle's tying and winning goal came from two players who are noted as prolific goal scorers. Luca Hauf had the tying goal on the power play. In 66 previous games in the WHL he had scored just twelve times. That's one goal about every six games. How long had it been since his last goal? Six games.

Sam Popowich scored the game winner. It was his 23rd career WHL goal, in his 183rd game. That's a goal every eight games.  It was his first goal in sixteen games, after scoring in four straight games to start the season. 

These aren't two players who are going to consistently light the lamp. What they are is a pair of Swiss Army knives.  They bring a little bit of everything in their toolboxes.  They can play up and down the lineup. They play in all situations and they bring grit and they bring energy.  

The goals they do bring seem to be of the timely variety. Four of Hauf's goals this season have been scored on the power play. Three of Popowich's five goals this year have been game winners.  Yes, you win games by scoring more goals than your opponent but you don't win by soley scoring goals.  You claim victory by winning puck battles, killing penalties, blocking shots and getting pucks out of harms way. You win by doing the hard work, the dirty work,  and both Hauf and Popowich excel in those areas. 

After the game Hauf didn't tell me he just wanted to score more goals, he emphasized wanting to score more greasy goals. he's willing to go to the net and take the abuse, getting whacked and hacked, to get to loose pucks and second chances.  Popowich isn't ever going to be the biggest player on the ice but so often we see him standing around the opposing net, looking for deflections and redirects.  To score more than your opponent, you have to keep the puck out of your net as well. That takes some sacrifice and these two players do that.

Seattle and Kelowna played three games in eight days with the T-Birds winning twice.  Goals scored so far in the season series? Seattle 7, Kelowna 6. They're not division opponents but it is one of the T-Birds better rivalries over the past 20 years.  

My Three Stars for Saturday's win:

Third Star: W Luca Hauf. For me, the power play goal was the key goal for Seattle and he fought off a Rockets defender to get to the net and take the pass from Antonio Martorana. he then found a small space to get it through the Rocket's goalie. He followed that up with the prmary assist on Popowich's game winner.

Second Star: G Scott Ratzlaff. After the Rockets tied the game in the first period, they were buzzing around the Seattle net for a lot of the second half of that first period.  Ratzlaff kept them at bay. Then, after Seattle grabbed the lead in the third period, he came with with a few key late stops as Kelowna was looking for the equalizer. As a result his save percentage is now at .900 and his goals against average is just a tick above 3.00 and heading down in the right direction.

First Star: C Sam Popowich.  It just wasn't the game winning goal, though that was the best moment for him, but when the Rockets pulled their goalie for the extra skater in the final two minutes, he won a number of defensive zone face offs, allowing Seattle to get puck possession. He was just nine of 20 in the faceoff circle in the game but I'm guessing two or three came in the final two minutes. He was also part of Seattle's big penalty kill at the end of the second period.  If the T-Birds allow a goal there, they probably don't comeback in the third for the win.


Sunday, November 26, 2023

Four Out of Five Dentists Recommend

Playing four games in five nights is taxing. It gets even more so when you are minus players to injuries. It becomes even more difficult when those missing players are your relied upon point producers.  No one recommends playing four games in five nights under any circumstances but it is a fact of life in the WHL that from time to time you go through a few of those. Building availability, travel and a few other itmes factor in.  You play the hand you're dealt.

You could probably have guessed Seattle was going to have a young, rookie filled roster this season. What you could not have predicted were long term injuries to the team's top three returning offensive weapons: Nico Myatovic, Jordan Gustafson and Gracyn Sawchyn.

Gustafson has played just two games in his WHL career against the Saskatoon Blades. He's probably hoping he never has to face them again (It would only happen if he returns next season as a 20 year old). Last January early in a game in Saskatoon he fell awkwardly to the ice, after a check from his brother Blake no less, and suffered an injury that cost him most of the second half of last season and the first 12 games this year.

Finally back in the lineup again this season and the Blades are in town Friday. What happens? He blocks a shot and suffers another injury that puts him back on the shelf. What are those old country song lyrics? If it weren't for bad luck, I'd have no luck at all.

It's too bad because I believe Gustafson would have received an invite to Team Canada's World Junior team training camp with a chance to earn a spot on the roster. He was involved in their team meetings this past summer.  He could still be invited so let's hope this injury is a quick heal.

Unfortunately the injury suffered by Myatovic in early October won't be healed in time for him to fight for a spot with Team Canada. Literally a tough break because I think he'd have been a perfect third or fourth line player for Canada, similar to Reid Schaefer's role last year.

Will Scott Ratzlaff get an invite? Like Gustafson he was part of Canada's summer meetings. Don't let his numbers fool you. Yes, he had a poor start to the season but he has settled down and looked terrific in goal the last couple of weeks. He's keeping a young, inexperienced team in a lot of games recently.

I counted nearly 140 shots on goal for Seattle in the four games last week. They scored just five times on those shots and one of those was an empty netter. That's a Mendoza line shooting percentage of 2.85 percent. Is there some bad luck involved there? Sure, but the biggest culprit for me is a lack of a net front presence and I think that correlates with the young roster. 

I'm guessing many of these young forwards never had to stand in front of the net very often in their minor days, asked to take a goalies eyes off the puck.  Most were probably one of the better players on their minor team and are used to having the puck on their stick, shooting and having the puck go in. Give them time to acclimate to that role.

I remember Schaefer's first training camp with Seattle back in 2018. He was flying up and down the ice scoring lots of goals in the scrimmages. By the time he left Seattle he had become a reliable player around the front of the net.

The T-Birds went just 1-3 in their four games this past week but there were times in all four games where they controlled the play and in three of the four games they were in a position to get something out of the contest by the third period. It's why I say this young team is both impressive and frustating to watch, all at the same time. 

It's hard, coming off a championship season, to be patient but that's what we're going to have to be as they go through growing pains. I think the same thing happened in the pandemic season of 2021. Remember that was just a 23 game season, not 68, so we tend to forget the similarities to this year. But Seattle went 10-12-1-0 that year and many of those twelve losses were similar in nature to some of the losses the T-Birds have suffered so far this season. A year later Seattle was playing for a WHL title.

Injuries affect every team but they'll have a bigger impact on a younger, rookie laden roster.  A season ago Seattle could survive four players away at Workd Juniors, a Gustafson injury, or waiting for Colton Dach to heal up because they had plenty of experienced depth. They don't have that this season.

What they do have is a deep group of young players that will develop together and while it may not look like it from one game to the next, they are getting better with each shift and every practice. For a young team practice time has immense value and when you play four games in five nights, you don't get that practice. 

Their youth has probably cost them a couple of wins so far, but I actually think the injuries have been the bigger factor. With everyone in the lineup Seattle is probably four or five wins better than their current .500 record. Keep that in mind as we approach the trade deadline. I know there are some out there who want to trade away any player of value but when Seattle gets healthy, keeping this team together might be the better option. I'm not saying they won't deal, but I wouldn't be surprised if the didn't.

My T-Birds Three Stars for the final two games of four in five nights:

Third Star: D Sawyer Mynio. Seattle is relying on Mynio and Jeremy Hanzel to eat up a lot of minutes on the back end. They're handling the workload quite well. Mynio can be both physical and finesse.  I think he gets called on too many borderline penatlies.Some are warranted, other are not.  He's been a very good skater from almost the day he arrived. He wants to be more offensive and we're starting to see him shoot more. His power play goal Saturday in Kelowna was a beauty.

Second Star: W Simon Lovsin.  In one shift Saturday against the Rockets we saw the package Lovsin brings to the table. Physicality, speed and offensive touch. Remember he's still a rookie. He's got more physical maturity to attain.  He can be a Reid Schaefer or Lucas Ciona type player for Seattle.  

First Star:  G Scott Ratzlaff.  Ratzlaff bailed out his team on more than one occasion on the weekend and was the primary reason the T-Birds could hang around into the third period in both games.  It isn't necessarily the amount of rubber he's facing, though he did face quite a lot Saturday. It's the quality of chances he's facing and stopping that makes him stand out. He has a tremendous competitve fire.


Thursday, November 23, 2023

A Brief Pause

 Happy Thanksgiving as Seattle catches their breath in the midst of four games in five days.  

Seattle has been a .500 team the last four games. A loss followed by a win, followed by a loss, then a win.  Not all surprising considering the youth of the team and who is out of the lineup.It's all speculation but I believe with a healthy Sawchyn and Myatovic the last month, the T-Birds are probably good for another two to three wins. I doubt they blow third period leads to Victoria and Spokane.  They'll enter Friday's game against Saskatoon at 10-8-1-0 but 13-6-0-0 looks a lot better.  But as they say, it is what it is.

When the Thunderbirds play their brand of hockey, they're a hard out for anyone. The forecheck is their bread and butter. Get pucks in deep and grind down your opponent. When they fall off their game they struggle to keep up, spending too much time in the defensive zone. Usually the culprit is the lack of crisp passing as they try to move up ice. At other times it's not being positionally sound inside their own blue line.

These are the growing pains this team will go through.  One night they'll look like world beaters, the next, not so much. Heck, they went through both those stages in the loss Tuesday in Kennewick. They were all over the Americans in the fist period, outshooting them 19-9. Now, not many of those shots were of the dangerous variety but it still meant they had a good portion of the puck posession.  It was a different story in the second period as they struggled to make tape-to-tape passes and as a result they looked like a completely different team and fell behind, 3-0.

As you know, the T-Birds traded their 2021 first round pick, Tij Iginla to the Kelowna Rockets in the offseason. The player requested the trade and the organization obliged. Iginla is off to a good start with the Rockets with 18 goals in 23 games, though Seattle stifled him Wednesday night in his return to the accesso ShoWare Center.

I sure hope that first round pick Seattle got back is Kelowna's own and not the Regina pick Seattle traded to the Rockets last January in the Colton Dach deal.  There is still a long way to go this season  but right now that Rocket's first rounder is a lottery pick as Kelowna currently sits with the third worst record in the WHL after losing ten of their last 11 games. The last time Seattle was sitting with the third overall pick in the first round of the WHL Draft, they won the draft lottery and moved up to select first overall. They ended up with some guy named Mat Barzal.  

Either way it looks like the T-Birds are in line for a high selection and I trust Bil LaForge and his scouts to find another high end player to add to their stable of young prospects. The T-Birds don't have a lot of picks in the 2024 draft but getting a lottery selection could make up for that.

Seattle has signed nine 2007 born players (current 16 year olds). Six of them are currently on the roster. Another, Caleb Potter, has played in a couple of games for Seattle this season. Jaxson Pawlenchuk skated in two preseason games. The other, defenseman Tai Riley, just recently signed.  I would be shocked if he doesn't make his WHL debut at some point this season, even if he's up for just one game at the end of the season. Along with their 2006s (five on the roster), that's a lot of youth getting some early action in the WHL. It's going to lead to inconsistency but hopefully it speeds up their development.

Watch Seattle's 2022 first round pick Braeden Cootes whenever he's on the ice and tell me he doesn't play a complete 200 foot game. He's not perfect at age 16 and will make the occasional mistake, but he has all the makings of a team leader. He has that "hockey maturity" that reminds me of the way Nico Myatovic has played since he arrived on the scene.

My T-Birds Three Stars for the front half of four games in five days:

Third Star:  W Coster Dunn.  He may have been Seattle's best player in the loss Tuesday in Kennewick.  He's got a sneaky good reach with his stick that has made him fairly adept at stripping pucks.  He still is growing, even after taking a big leap physically this offseason. Already a solid skater, once he gets even stronger in the upper body, he should improve his ability to fight through checks. My comp for him would be Mathew Wedman.

Second Star: C Sam Popowich.  Seems to be the one T-Birds players that goes consistently to the front of the net. It led to an assist on Seattle's power play goal against Kelowna Wednesday night.  He added a second assist on the Simon Lovsin empty-netter.  The T-Birds are one of the best face off teams in the WHL at this juncture of the season. Winning defensive zone faceoffs when shorthanded is a key to a good penalty kill and Popowich is very adept at it. He was 14-of-25 on draws Wednesday night.

First Star: G Scott Ratzlaff. Ratzlaff earned his first shutout of the season Wednesday with a 19 save effort. It was the seventh shutout of his T-Birds career after leading the league last season with five. In his last four games he has turned aside 121 of 125 shots, posting a 1.06 GAA and a .960 SVPCT. After a slow statistical start to the season he is starting to look like the Ratzlaff that won WHL Goalie of the Month honors last December.